The perspective of early career scientists of Modeling and Mitigating Unprecedented Flood Disasters in Data-Scarce Regions – Derna city flood case | Mateo Hernández Sánchez, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Gabriel Marinho e Silva, Maria de Andrade Rocha Allencar Castro, Luís Miguel Castillo Rapalo, Marcus Nóbrega Gomes Junior e Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

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Mateo Hernández Sánchez [1] 

Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva [2]

Gabriel Marinho e Silva [3]

Maria de Andrade Rocha Allencar Castro [4]

Luís Miguel Castillo Rapalo [5]

Marcus Nóbrega Gomes Junior [6]

Eduardo Mario Mendiondo [7]

Unraveling the catastrophic Derna flood: causes, impacts, and modeling initiatives.

On September 10th, Storm Daniel caused extensive damage in northeastern Libya, resulting in heavy rainfall and sudden flooding that impacted numerous urban and rural areas. The human casualties have been substantial, and the numbers are anticipated to increase. According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), around 884,000 individuals residing in five regions (Mantikas) are situated in locations directly impacted by the storm and flash floods in Libya, with varying degrees of impact (OCHA, 2023).  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports show that more frequent and severe extreme events are linked to climate change caused by the temperature increases, due to our non-sustainable life patterns (IPCC, 2022). Although no one can say for certain that a given event was caused or worsened by climate change, attribution studies can estimate the probability that climate change affected Storm Daniel, says Günter Blöschl, a hydrologist at the Vienna University of Technology. “The answer to that is, at this stage, without detailed analysis, yes. There is quite a clear causal link.” (Marshall, 2023). Storm Daniel has the characteristics of a tropical depression; approximately 170 millimeters of rainfall fell in Libya. Torrential rains of between 150 – 240 mm caused flash floods in several cities, including Al-Bayda, which recorded the highest rainfall rate of 414.1 mm in 24 hours (Marshall, 2023). Flooding specialists say the rainfall was unusually severe, and climate change probably intensified it by supercharging Storm Daniel, a low-pressure weather system that formed over the Mediterranean Sea around 4 September.  As a result of such huge rainfall, two dams collapsed, Derna and Mansour (a pair of dams positioned further up the river valley with the same name, situated at one and twelve kilometers’ distance), releasing an estimated 30 million cubic meters of water into the city of Derna (Global Security, 2023). Other towns and cities were also affected, but what occurred to Derna was the worst event cataloged. In an average year, Derna gets 274 millimeters of rain, according to the German Weather Service (2023). 

(Leia o ensaio completo em PDF)

 

Recebido em: 15/10/2023

Aceito em: 15/11/2023

 

[1] Master’s Degree Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: mathernandezsan@usp.br 

[2] Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: pedrogc.silva@usp.br 

[3] Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: marinho.gabriel@alumni.usp.br 

[4] Master’s Degree Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: maria.alencar@usp.br 

[5] Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: luis.castillo@usp.br 

[6] Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: marcusnobrega@usp.br 

[7] Ph.D. Professor, Dept. of Hydraulics Engineering and Sanitation, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo. Email: emm@sc.usp.br